A recent study conducted by a team around the GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences has highlighted an increasing risk of a strong earthquake in Istanbul. The city is located near a tectonic boundary beneath the Sea of Marmara where two tectonic plates slide past each other. This creates geological stress, particularly in areas where the plates are locked together, allowing significant pressure to build up.

Researchers identified a critical fault segment under the Sea of Marmara that has shown little seismic activity in the past, indicating that accumulated stresses have not been released. Moreover, recent strong earthquakes have been occurring progressively closer to Istanbul. Due to these findings, the study team emphasizes the need for enhanced monitoring of seismic activity in this critical zone, including the use of real-time data to better understand and prepare for potential earthquakes.