POLICY BRIEF: 2026-09-24
⏱ 3 min read

Executive Summary

The potential election of a far-right president in France, such as Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella, could profoundly reshape European security and migration policies. This shift may lead to increased nationalism, reduced cooperation within the EU, and stricter migration laws, impacting refugees and migrants across Europe.

France has long been a cornerstone of European integration, championing collective action within the European Union and NATO. Its leadership has been pivotal in shaping policies on security, migration, and economic cooperation. However, the rise of far-right political figures like Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella signals a potential departure from these values. Both leaders advocate for a more nationalist approach, prioritizing French sovereignty over multilateral commitments.

Historically, far-right movements in Europe have gained traction during periods of economic uncertainty and social unrest. In France, concerns over immigration, national identity, and economic stagnation have fueled support for these ideologies. If either Le Pen or Bardella were to assume the presidency in 2027, it could mark a significant shift in France’s role within Europe, with ripple effects across the continent.

Policy Motivations: The far-right agenda in France is driven by a desire to reclaim national sovereignty and reduce dependency on supranational institutions like the EU. Leaders like Le Pen and Bardella argue that current migration policies undermine French culture and economic stability. Their proposed measures include stricter border controls, reduced asylum quotas, and prioritizing French citizens in social welfare programs.

European Security Concerns: A unilateral approach to defence and migration could weaken collective security mechanisms within the EU and NATO. France’s withdrawal from cooperative frameworks might embolden other nationalist movements across Europe, leading to fragmented policies and reduced effectiveness in addressing global challenges such as migration crises and geopolitical tensions.

Implications for European Integration: The election of a far-right president in France could strain relationships with key allies like Germany and Poland, who advocate for solidarity in migration and security policies. This division may hinder the EU’s ability to negotiate unified responses to international issues, including refugee resettlement and border management.

Impact on Migrants

The prospect of a far-right presidency in France poses significant challenges for European unity and migration policy. While the future remains uncertain, it is crucial for European leaders to prepare for potential shifts and reaffirm their commitment to collective action and human rights.