Economists warn that indirect effects of the energy crisis could sustain inflation despite recent signs of relief.

Inflation in Germany has eased, with consumer prices rising by only 2.3% in June compared to 2.6% in May. This decline is attributed to the temporary fuel rebate and a sharp drop in oil prices, with Brent crude falling to $72 per barrel from a crisis peak of $126. Edgar Walk, Chief Economist at Metzler Asset Management, sees this as a clear sign of economic relief, noting that lower oil prices directly impact inflation rates.

However, experts caution that the inflation shock may not be over. The Bank for International Settlements warns that rising costs for key inputs like plastics and fertilizers, which have surged by 30% and 50% respectively, could ripple through supply chains. Jörg Krämer, Chief Economist at Commerzbank, highlights delayed cost pass-throughs from the oil price shock, suggesting consumers may face further price hikes. Additionally, geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and uncertainties in oil supply remain significant risks.