The Ukraine conflict may conclude with a fragile ceasefire, leading to ongoing tensions between Russia, Europe, and the U.S.

As the war in Ukraine approaches a potential ceasefire, the aftermath is likely to be characterized by a precarious balance of power, with Russia maintaining its presence in occupied territories and Europe bearing the brunt of any escalation.

Policymakers in America and Europe must establish a framework for ‘managed disorder’ that prevents conflict from reigniting, ensuring clear incentives for compliance and consequences for defection, while accommodating internal divisions and external pressures.