In a recent discussion, experts highlight the troubling trend of stagnating productivity growth, raising concerns about the sustainability of technological progress amid the rise of artificial intelligence.

Mark Leonard recently engaged with Carl Benedikt Frey, an associate professor at the Oxford Internet Institute, to explore the implications of a global productivity slowdown. Frey, author of ‘How Progress Ends: Technology, Innovation and the Fate of Nations,’ argues that despite significant advancements in technology, including artificial intelligence, the expected surge in productivity has not materialized.

Frey emphasizes that innovation is not a guaranteed outcome of technological advancements. Instead, it is heavily influenced by the surrounding institutions, incentives, and political environments that facilitate the adaptation and scaling of new ideas. This perspective challenges the prevailing notion that technological progress is an unstoppable force.

The conversation also delves into the competitive landscape shaped by AI, particularly the contrasting approaches of the United States and China. Frey notes that China’s adoption of open-weight AI models could potentially disrupt American technological dominance. Meanwhile, Europe continues to face hurdles in digital industries, despite its manufacturing strengths, raising questions about its future in the global tech arena.